UK Electricity Generation Mix: How will it make the transition to less than 100gCO2e/kWh?

This is an open and ongoing question because nobody knows, but it must still be asked, and asked again. This article is a mish mash of information, mainly because by accident or design, the status and direction of travel for the UK electricity grid is bewildering.

It is perfectly feasible to eliminate fossil fuel power stations, probably in the order coal, then biomass, then gas, as a combination of renewable energy, electricity storage and smart grid technologies are installed.

Unfortunately this is compromised by government policies, desires to extract the very last drops of fossil fuels from around the UK's coasts, poor incentives, and all the rest of the Heath Robinson set of cranks and levers that result in time passing by with much huff and puff.

Fortunately the renewable sector has realised that costs coming down, improving technology, and an expanding skills base means they can really just get on with getting on with the job.

And don't worry, the government will take credit where it isn't due.

From http://www.mygridgb.co.uk/last-7-days/ the snapshot of the week ending 4/1/2019 looks like this:









The carbon intensity is too high anyway, and it is a lot worse during cold snaps, with reduced sun and low winds, with demand high, and renewable energy availability reduced, what are the plans to reduce the carbon intensity to below 100gCO2e/kWh?

The detail of the plans would include dates for each action step towards this goal and we obviously need visibility of policies, commitments, advice and all the other artifacts that are inputs to the decision making.

As an example, we know that coal is supposed to be phased out by 2025. Is that the beginning of 2025, the end of 2025, or is that really dependent on other electricity generation being in place, and despite any efforts by the coal importing lobby to affect this.

It is complicated, this business of watching the government spin machine.

As another example, how are these coal plants that are now mixing in biomass to gain subsidies to be treated. We haven't seen any definitive summary of the complicated electricity generating setup as it stands, let alone the transition steps. 

If you can point them out, that would be great.

p.s. those details of carbon emissions must be estimates musn't they, based on averages, because we don't think any actual measurements are taken, and we must look up how to convert carbon to carbon dioxide in this complicated world of mixing and matching units of measure.

Here's a wake up call from twitter:



And also:

Now that's a headline worthy of discussion. Personally we don't like fluff stories that just make people think everything is alright, and what's all the fuss about.



In the 28 years since 1990, UK total CO2 (inc. aviation/shipping, imports/exports) has fallen by just ~10%.



The Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy view (they used to have Climate Change in the title but hey that's not important):


And the science view. Beats us why there are sides. Not as if there's a classic argument to win and takes all the prizes.









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